Sans Browser

HTML 5 in 15 Years?

December 10th, 2007 by enefekt

Reading over the article on ALA previewing HTML 5, there is a lot of cool stuff. The video and audio tags, and the new structure elements are all great. That last part stung a little bit though:

Work on HTML 5 is rapidly progressing, yet it is still expected to continue for several years. Due to the requirement to produce test cases and achieve interoperable implementations, current estimates have work finishing in around ten to fifteen years.

Hold up. Now, I’m sure that “work finishing” and being able to use it in more than one browser have to be two completely different things.(Hopefully!) But thats a long time!

Just as a head check in case there are folks looking to develop advanced RIAs right now. The Flash Player get’s over 90% penetration after just about a year. That means, Flash Player 9, along with Flex and ActionScript 3 apps incorporating video and audio, have a runtime penetration rate of over 90% right now. And in at the most one year, over 90% of clients will have the capability to playback H.264 video. That includes Linux, Windows, and Mac.

One Comment

  1. pd Says:

    10-15 years probably includes a massive delay for the Microsoft people to catch up. They’ve just gone ACID2 internally. We might not see that until July 2008. We don’t even know if MonkeyMan will allow his “developers, developers, developers” to continue working on a browser after that. For all we know, before MS starts looking at HTML5 – which they haven’t been involved in designing, have they? – MonkeyMan might divert all developers to work on pulling Windows out of the huge hole it’s landed in with the failure of Vista.

    Aside from MS, the lead time before install bases get updated is a big factor. I thought the pushing of IE7 via Windows Update would help resolve this problem but it hasn’t.