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HTML 5 in 15 Years?

December 10th, 2007 by enefekt

Reading over the article on ALA previewing HTML 5, there is a lot of cool stuff. The video and audio tags, and the new structure elements are all great. That last part stung a little bit though:

Work on HTML 5 is rapidly progressing, yet it is still expected to continue for several years. Due to the requirement to produce test cases and achieve interoperable implementations, current estimates have work finishing in around ten to fifteen years.

Hold up. Now, I’m sure that “work finishing” and being able to use it in more than one browser have to be two completely different things.(Hopefully!) But thats a long time!

Just as a head check in case there are folks looking to develop advanced RIAs right now. The Flash Player get’s over 90% penetration after just about a year. That means, Flash Player 9, along with Flex and ActionScript 3 apps incorporating video and audio, have a runtime penetration rate of over 90% right now. And in at the most one year, over 90% of clients will have the capability to playback H.264 video. That includes Linux, Windows, and Mac.

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